Three scenarios

Guarantees of non-acceptance of Ukraine into NATO, abandonment of the course for the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance to the east, coupled with a ban on the deployment of troops near the borders of Russia, as well as the withdrawal of the NATO bloc to the borders of 1997 , – all this means the actual cancellation of the security architecture of Europe, which was formed in the period after the end of the Cold War. Security guarantees, if approved, will strengthen Russia’s position in the international arena and seriously undermine the status of the US, NATO and European structures. Therefore, it becomes obvious that such “concessions” are a priori unlikely. If the parties come to the conclusion that diplomatic efforts in this direction are pointless, three military scenarios of Russia’s steps in Ukraine are possible.

Obviously, the military resource that Russia has gathered near the Ukrainian border is not enough to logistically support a large-scale operation that could cover the Ukrainian regions across the Dnieper River. If such a scenario is implemented, the burden on the Russian budget will seriously increase. At the same time, it is very difficult to predict the scale of the humanitarian consequences. Active street fighting in densely populated areas of Ukraine is also seen as an unlikely scenario for Moscow.

The second scenario is the capture of certain areas that are strategically important from a logistical point of view. That is, we can talk about the partial occupation of Ukraine – either the entire Donbass region of Ukraine, or the land zone connecting Donbass with Crimea. Both scenarios could demonstrate Russia’s resolve in the face of the West and prove a clear commitment to the “red lines” drawn by Moscow. At the same time, the second scenario is associated for Russia with a “solution” to the problem of water supply to the Crimea and ensuring full control over the Sea of ​​Azov.

The third scenario is the least costly for Moscow. Air strikes are possible in order to cause maximum damage to the infrastructure of Ukraine. This scenario, according to its supporters, will lead to the growth of contradictions in Ukrainian society, the spread of an atmosphere of panic and hopelessness. At the same time, Moscow will make it clear to the West that what is happening in Ukraine is “just the beginning,” and thereby strengthen its position on the diplomatic front.

The consequences of any of the three scenarios cannot be fully predicted. Russian politicians will be forced to fully analyze the political and economic losses from actions in Ukraine. It is worth recognizing that today the intensity of the confrontation has reached such a level at which any refusal by Moscow of its demands is associated with a serious blow to the image of Russia. Against the backdrop of the failure of efforts to reach a consensus between the Russian Federation and the West, the contours of the war are becoming clearer.